FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Portland Timbers 0–1 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Portland Timbers or draw at 72%. Bawler had Portland Timbers at 47%, the draw at 24% and Atlanta United FC at 28%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portland Timbers win
47%
Draw
24%
Atlanta United FC win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Portland Timbers or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, backed by Portland's 0.56 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.07 that favors an open, multi-goal contest."