How it finished
Atlanta United FC beat Portland Timbers 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Portland Timbers at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Atlanta United FC 28%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Portland Timbers had 21 shots (3 on target) to Atlanta United FC's 10 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 0.7, so Portland Timbers created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
Atlanta United FC beat Portland Timbers 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Portland Timbers at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Atlanta United FC 28%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Portland Timbers had 21 shots (3 on target) to Atlanta United FC's 10 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 1.6 to 0.7, so Portland Timbers created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
Portland Timbers 0–1 Atlanta United FC, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Portland Timbers 47%, the draw 24% and Atlanta United FC 28%.
What were the stats in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–0.7, Shots 21–10, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 16–7, Big chances 4–0, Corners 5–3, Saves 2–3, Fouls 4–13, Offsides 3–3, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC?
No. It finished 0–1, so Portland Timbers failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Portland Timbers or draw 72%, it finished Atlanta United FC won (28% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Missed.