USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vFC Dallas

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.95 goals expected
Portland Timbers 32%Draw 30%FC Dallas 38%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
77%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 77% probability because Portland's home setup and Dallas's attacking intent combine for 2.95 total expected goals—enough to crack the under despite Dallas's marginal 6-point win edge.

How we get there
Portland TimbersstepFC Dallas
1.25Base xG · rolling 26-match1.63
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.54
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Portland Timbers average 5.1 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Dallas average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
6
3
1
1
7
11
9
4
2
1
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
4
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Portland Timbers vs Dallas — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Portland Timbers and Dallas — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Portland Timbers 32% · draw 30% · Dallas 38%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Portland Timbers 22 FC Dallas
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.