USA: MLSSunday 26 Jul, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vReal Salt Lake

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 3.16 goals expected
Portland Timbers 35%Draw 29%Real Salt Lake 36%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
82%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% probability because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat at 1.57 and 1.59 xG respectively, virtually guaranteeing a multi-goal affair.

How we get there
Portland TimbersstepReal Salt Lake
1.39Base xG · rolling 26-match1.69
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.59
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
82%
Over 3.5 goals
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Portland Timbers average 5.1 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Real Salt Lake average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
7
5
3
1
1
7
11
8
4
2
1
2
5
8
7
3
1
3
3
4
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 2 May 2026, Portland Timbers have won 0, Real Salt Lake have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
2 May 2026Real Salt Lake 20 Portland TimbersUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Portland Timbers 35% · draw 29% · Real Salt Lake 36%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Portland Timbers 21 Real Salt Lake
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.