FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Portsmouth 0–2 Derby CountyMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Portsmouth or draw at 66%. Bawler had Portsmouth at 38%, the draw at 28% and Derby County at 34%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
38%
Draw
28%
Derby County win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.