How it finished
Derby County beat Portsmouth 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Portsmouth at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Derby County 34%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 2. Portsmouth had 21 shots (2 on target) to Derby County's 8 (5), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.5, so Portsmouth created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Derby County beat Portsmouth 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Portsmouth at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Derby County 34%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 2. Portsmouth had 21 shots (2 on target) to Derby County's 8 (5), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.5, so Portsmouth created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Portsmouth 0–2 Derby County, played on 01 Sept 2026 in the ENGLAND: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Portsmouth 38%, the draw 28% and Derby County 34%.
What were the stats in Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.5, Shots 21–8, Shots on target 2–5, Shots inside box 10–7, Big chances 0–1, Corners 11–2, Saves 3–2, Fouls 12–15, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby County?
No. It finished 0–2, so Portsmouth failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Portsmouth vs Derby County right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Portsmouth or draw 66%, it finished Derby County won (34% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 72%, it finished Landed.