Portugal vCroatia
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 73% because Portugal's 1.64 xG combined with Croatia's 1.19 creates a 2.84-goal ceiling that favors attacking output, anchored by Ronaldo and Kramarić as primary scorers.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Portugal average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Croatia average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Portugal vs Croatia — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Portugal and Croatia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Portugal 45% · draw 30% · Croatia 25%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.