Portugal vSpain
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 73% because Portugal's 1.45 xG and Spain's 1.33 xG combine for a high-variance total that leans toward a multi-goal affair, even with win odds nearly split three ways.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Portugal average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Spain average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Portugal vs Spain — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Portugal and Spain — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Portugal 34% · draw 31% · Spain 35%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.