FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 13 August 2026
Rangers 1–1 Jagiellonia BialystokMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 13 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Rangers at 44%, draw at 39%, Jagiellonia Bialystok at 17%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Rangers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
44%
Draw
39%
Actual ✓
Bialystok win
17%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won