FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Rangers 1–0 MotherwellMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rangers or draw at 78%. Bawler had Rangers at 54%, the draw at 24% and Motherwell at 22%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
54%
Result
Draw
24%
Motherwell win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.9 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Medium confidence
Rangers to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands 81% confidence as Rangers' 0.74 xG advantage projects a multi-goal frame in this Scottish Premiership fixture."