FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Real Salt Lake 3–0 New England RevolutionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was New England Revolution or draw at 63%. Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 37%, the draw at 25% and New England Revolution at 38%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Salt Lake win
37%
Result
Draw
25%
New England Revolution win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 82% because both sides generate nearly identical expected goals—Salt Lake 1.56, New England 1.57—guaranteeing an open, attacking fixture."