FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Real Sociedad 1–2 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AFC Bournemouth or draw at 77%. Bawler had Real Sociedad at 23%, the draw at 23% and AFC Bournemouth at 54%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Sociedad win
23%
Draw
23%
AFC Bournemouth win
54%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.0
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AFC Bournemouth or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bournemouth's 0.74 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability underpin the AFC Bournemouth or draw forecast at 77%, with striker Evanilson (18% of team xG) positioned to exploit Real Sociedad's defensive vulnerability in a wide xG gap."