FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Red Bull New York 1–3 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union or draw at 67%. Bawler had Red Bull New York at 33%, the draw at 23% and Philadelphia Union at 43%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Red Bull New York win
33%
Draw
23%
Philadelphia Union win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.9
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 86% as both teams combine for 3.46 expected goals, with Philadelphia's 1.86 xG—led by striker Tai Baribo's 26% team share—pressing a narrow xG gap that favors an open contest."