How it finished
Philadelphia Union beat Red Bull New York 3–1. Bawler's model had Philadelphia Union in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.5 goals and the match produced 4. Red Bull New York had 11 shots (4 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 19 (7), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Red Bull New York vs Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union beat Red Bull New York 3–1. Bawler's model had Philadelphia Union in front at 43% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.5 goals and the match produced 4. Red Bull New York had 11 shots (4 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 19 (7), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.9.
What was the final score in Red Bull New York vs Philadelphia Union?
Red Bull New York 1–3 Philadelphia Union, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Red Bull New York 33%, the draw 23% and Philadelphia Union 43%.
What were the stats in Red Bull New York vs Philadelphia Union?
Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–2.9, Shots 11–19, Shots on target 4–7, Shots inside box 11–14, Big chances 3–3, Corners 4–7, Saves 1–3, Fouls 12–13, Offsides 3–4, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Red Bull New York vs Philadelphia Union?
Yes — both Red Bull New York and Philadelphia Union scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 67% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Red Bull New York vs Philadelphia Union right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Philadelphia Union or draw 67%, it finished Philadelphia Union won (43% called); Total goals — we said 3.5, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 67%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 86%, it finished Landed.