FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Rijeka 1–4 FC MidtjyllandMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Midtjylland or draw at 76%. Bawler had Rijeka at 24%, the draw at 26% and FC Midtjylland at 50%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rijeka win
24%
Draw
26%
FC Midtjylland win
50%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 77%, driven by Midtjylland's 0.58 xG edge and commanding 50% win probability that suggests attacking dominance will force an open match."