FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Rio Ave 3–3 EstrelaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rio Ave or draw at 66%. Bawler had Rio Ave at 39%, the draw at 27% and Estrela at 34%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rio Ave win
39%
Draw
27%
Result
Estrela win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 77%, grounded in Rio Ave's 1.47 xG and Estrela's 1.34 xG combining for a 2.81 total that projects an open, attacking fixture."