How it finished
Rio Ave and Estrela drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Rio Ave at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 6. Rio Ave had 11 shots (6 on target) to Estrela's 20 (6), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Rio Ave and Estrela drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Rio Ave at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 6. Rio Ave had 11 shots (6 on target) to Estrela's 20 (6), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.9.
What was the final score in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Rio Ave 3–3 Estrela, played on 14 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Rio Ave 39%, the draw 27% and Estrela 34%.
What were the stats in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Full-time: Possession 38%–62%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.9, Shots 11–20, Shots on target 6–6, Shots inside box 4–14, Big chances 2–3, Corners 4–5, Saves 2–3, Fouls 16–12, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 2–3.
Did both teams score in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
Yes — both Rio Ave and Estrela scored, finishing 3–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Rio Ave or draw 66%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.