FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Samsunspor 0–2 FenerbahceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce or draw at 71%. Bawler had Samsunspor at 30%, the draw at 26% and Fenerbahce at 45%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Samsunspor win
30%
Draw
26%
Fenerbahce win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.