USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 02:30 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vOrlando City SC

Most likely scoreline
21
9% of the time · 3.64 goals expected
San Jose Earthquakes 62%Draw 22%Orlando City SC 16%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
85%

Over 1.5 Goals carries 85% probability because San Jose's 2.43 xG towers 1.21 above Orlando's 1.22, forcing a high-volume attacking script.

How we get there
San Jose EarthquakesstepOrlando City SC
2.15Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.43Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.22
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Orlando City SC or draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

San Jose Earthquakes average 6.9 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). Orlando City average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
3
2
1
1
6
8
5
2
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
6
8
5
2
1
4
4
5
3
1
5
2
2
1
1
6
1
1
1
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between San Jose Earthquakes and Orlando City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: San Jose Earthquakes 62% · draw 22% · Orlando City 16%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
San Jose Earthquakes 04 Orlando City SC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.