FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 3–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Jose Earthquakes or draw at 76%. Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 54%, the draw at 22% and Portland Timbers at 24%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Jose Earthquakes win
54%
Result
Draw
22%
Portland Timbers win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.4
Total 3.6
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
San Jose Earthquakes to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 87%, driven by San Jose's 0.76 xG advantage and 2.17 expected shot quality at home."