How it finished
San Jose Earthquakes beat Portland Timbers 3–1. Bawler's model had San Jose Earthquakes in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.6 goals and the match produced 4. San Jose Earthquakes had 13 shots (8 on target) to Portland Timbers' 18 (6), with 46% of the ball against 54%. On expected goals it was 0.9 to 1.5, so Portland Timbers created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
San Jose Earthquakes beat Portland Timbers 3–1. Bawler's model had San Jose Earthquakes in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.6 goals and the match produced 4. San Jose Earthquakes had 13 shots (8 on target) to Portland Timbers' 18 (6), with 46% of the ball against 54%. On expected goals it was 0.9 to 1.5, so Portland Timbers created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
San Jose Earthquakes 3–1 Portland Timbers, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with San Jose Earthquakes 54%, the draw 22% and Portland Timbers 24%.
What were the stats in San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 0.9–1.5, Shots 13–18, Shots on target 8–6, Shots inside box 10–13, Big chances 1–0, Corners 5–9, Saves 5–5, Fouls 8–11, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
Yes — both San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 67% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said San Jose Earthquakes or draw 76%, it finished San Jose Earthquakes won (54% called); Total goals — we said 3.6, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 67%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 87%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said San Jose Earthquakes to win 54%, it finished Landed.