FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–3 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was San Jose Earthquakes or draw at 74%. Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 45%, the draw at 29% and St. Louis CITY SC at 26%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Jose Earthquakes win
45%
Draw
29%
St. Louis CITY SC win
26%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
St. Louis CITY SC to win
Pre-match: 21%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.