How it finished
St. Louis CITY SC beat San Jose Earthquakes 3–1. Bawler's model favoured San Jose Earthquakes at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave St. Louis CITY SC 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. San Jose Earthquakes had 6 shots (1 on target) to St. Louis CITY SC's 14 (7), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 2.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CITY SC?
St. Louis CITY SC beat San Jose Earthquakes 3–1. Bawler's model favoured San Jose Earthquakes at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave St. Louis CITY SC 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. San Jose Earthquakes had 6 shots (1 on target) to St. Louis CITY SC's 14 (7), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 2.7.
What was the final score in San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CITY SC?
San Jose Earthquakes 1–3 St. Louis CITY SC, played on 16 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with San Jose Earthquakes 45%, the draw 29% and St. Louis CITY SC 26%.
What were the stats in San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–2.7, Shots 6–14, Shots on target 1–7, Shots inside box 4–12, Big chances 0–4, Corners 4–5, Saves 4–0, Fouls 16–17, Offsides 1–4, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Yes — both San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis CITY SC scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis CITY SC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said San Jose Earthquakes or draw 74%, it finished St. Louis CITY SC won (26% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 85%, it finished Landed.