FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Santa Clara 0–0 BragaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Braga or draw at 70%. Bawler had Santa Clara at 30%, the draw at 30% and Braga at 40%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Santa Clara win
30%
Draw
30%
Result
Braga win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.3
Total 2.3
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Braga or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 20%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Braga's superior chance creation (1.32 xG vs 1.08) and 41% win probability edge make the Braga or draw forecast the model's high-confidence call despite Santa Clara's home advantage."