FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Sassuolo 3–2 JuventusMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus or draw at 78%. Bawler had Sassuolo at 22%, the draw at 25% and Juventus at 53%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sassuolo win
22%
Result
Draw
25%
Juventus win
53%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.8
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, anchored by Juventus's 0.69 xG advantage and 53% win probability over a Sassuolo side managing just 1.08 expected goals at home."