FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
SC Freiburg 4–1 Werder BremenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg or draw at 79%. Bawler had SC Freiburg at 55%, the draw at 24% and Werder Bremen at 21%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Freiburg win
55%
Result
Draw
24%
Werder Bremen win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
SC Freiburg or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.