World: World CupWednesday 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC

Scotland vBrazil

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.89 goals expected
Scotland 18%Draw 28%Brazil 54%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
75%

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because Brazil's 1.87 xG and Scotland's 1.01 xG combine to 2.89 total, a 0.86-goal cushion that makes the threshold highly likely.

How we get there
ScotlandstepBrazil
1.01Base xG · rolling 26-match1.87
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.01Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.87
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Scotland average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Brazil average 5.3 corners per game this season (4 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
10
6
3
1
1
6
11
10
6
3
1
2
3
5
5
3
1
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Vinícius Jr
Brazil · Real Madrid
50%
To score
Raphinha
Brazil · Barcelona
43%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Scotland vs Brazil — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Scotland and Brazil — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Scotland 18% · draw 28% · Brazil 54%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Scotland 03 Brazil
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.