> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Friday 19 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Scotland vs Morocco
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals projects at 74% backed by a combined 2.74 xG and Morocco's attacking threat through Hakimi (22% of team xG) overwhelming Scotland's 1.24 expected output.
Win probability
28.4% home31.2% draw40.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ScotlandstepMorocco
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.51
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
7
4
1
1
8
12
9
5
2
1
2
5
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+