World: World CupFriday 19 Jun, 22:00 UTC

Scotland vMorocco

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.74 goals expected
Scotland 28%Draw 31%Morocco 40%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
74%

Over 2.5 Goals projects at 74% backed by a combined 2.74 xG and Morocco's attacking threat through Hakimi (22% of team xG) overwhelming Scotland's 1.24 expected output.

How we get there
ScotlandstepMorocco
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.51
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Morocco or draw
67%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Scotland average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Morocco average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
7
4
1
1
8
12
9
5
2
1
2
5
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Scotland fixtures & form →Morocco fixtures & form →

Scotland vs Morocco — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Scotland and Morocco — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Scotland 28% · draw 31% · Morocco 40%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Scotland predictions & form →Morocco predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Scotland 0–1 Morocco
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.