USA: MLSFriday 17 Jul, 02:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders FC vPortland Timbers

Most likely scoreline
21
10% of the time · 3.18 goals expected
Seattle Sounders FC 56%Draw 26%Portland Timbers 18%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
84%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 84% probability—Seattle's 2.05 xG and 0.92 edge in shot quality over Portland should produce the second goal required.

How we get there
Seattle Sounders FCstepPortland Timbers
1.82Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.13
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
84%
Over 3.5 goals
29%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Seattle Sounders average 4.8 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Portland Timbers average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
1
1
9
10
5
2
1
2
9
10
6
2
1
3
6
7
4
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Seattle Sounders 56% · draw 26% · Portland Timbers 18%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Seattle Sounders FC 15 Portland Timbers
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.