Senegal vIraq
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because Senegal's 2.11 xG dwarfs Iraq's 0.95, creating a 1.16-goal gap that translates to heavy attacking output.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Iraq average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Senegal vs Iraq — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Senegal and Iraq — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Senegal 60% · draw 25% · Iraq 15%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.