FT · Spain: La Liga · Friday, 11 September 2026
Sevilla 1–0 ValenciaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sevilla or draw at 64%. Bawler had Sevilla at 37%, the draw at 28% and Valencia at 36%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sevilla win
37%
Result
Draw
28%
Valencia win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sevilla's relegation fight at home clashes with Valencia's comfort zone, yet the model's 75% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals reflects narrow xG separation (1.38 vs 1.30) and both teams' attacking threat through creators like Lukebakio and Duro."