FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 13 August 2026
Shelbourne 2–2 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 13 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Shelbourne at 40%, draw at 28%, Ajax Amsterdam at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Shelbourne to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Shelbourne win
40%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Amsterdam win
32%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Shelbourne or Draw
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
No result
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won