FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Southampton 5–1 MillwallMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton or draw at 74%. Bawler had Southampton at 49%, the draw at 25% and Millwall at 26%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Southampton win
49%
Result
Draw
25%
Millwall win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Southampton or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Southampton's dead-rubber status at home clashes with Millwall's four-game title push, yet the hosts' superior chance creation (1.65 xG vs 1.28) supports Over 1.5 Goals at 79% confidence."