FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Southampton 3–1 Stoke CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton to win at 61%. Bawler had Southampton at 61%, the draw at 23% and Stoke City at 16%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Southampton win
61%
Result
Draw
23%
Stoke City win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Southampton or draw
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.