England: ChampionshipSaturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Southampton vStoke City

Most likely scoreline
1–0
13% of the time · 2.69 goals expected
Southampton 58%Draw 27%Stoke City 15%
How we get there
SouthamptonstepStoke City
1.85Base xG · rolling 26-match0.84
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.85Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.84

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Southampton average 6.3 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Stoke average 5.6 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
6
2
1
1
13
11
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
7
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Southampton fixtures & form →Stoke City fixtures & form →

Southampton vs Stoke — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Southampton and Stoke — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Southampton 58% · draw 27% · Stoke 15%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Southampton predictions & form →Stoke predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.