FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Southampton 1–4 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Ham United or draw at 69%. Bawler had Southampton at 31%, the draw at 26% and West Ham United at 43%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Southampton win
31%
Draw
26%
West Ham United win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.