World: World CupSunday 19 Jul, 19:00 UTC

Spain vArgentina

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.84 goals expected
Spain 40%Draw 31%Argentina 28%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
71%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 71% because Spain's 1.48 xG and Argentina's 1.37 xG project a combined 2.84 shots on target, making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely despite Spain's modest 40% win edge.

How we get there
SpainstepArgentina
1.48Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.48Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.37
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Spain average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Argentina average 6.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%
To score
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%
To score
Julián Álvarez
Argentina · Atletico Madrid
45%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Spain vs Argentina — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Spain and Argentina — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Spain 40% · draw 31% · Argentina 28%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Spain 10 Argentina
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.