Before kickoff our call was Spain to win at 79%. Bawler had Spain at 79%, the draw at 15% and Croatia at 6%. The match finished 4–1.
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.