How it finished
Spain beat Croatia 4–1. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 79% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Spain had 16 shots (7 on target) to Croatia's 5 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 0.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Spain vs Croatia?
Spain beat Croatia 4–1. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 79% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Spain had 16 shots (7 on target) to Croatia's 5 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 0.4.
What was the final score in Spain vs Croatia?
Spain 4–1 Croatia, played on 29 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Spain 79%, the draw 15% and Croatia 6%.
What were the stats in Spain vs Croatia?
Full-time: Possession 64%–36%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–0.4, Shots 16–5, Shots on target 7–2, Shots inside box 12–4, Big chances 4–1, Corners 6–2, Saves 1–3, Fouls 9–10, Offsides 5–0, Yellow cards 1–4.
Did both teams score in Spain vs Croatia?
Yes — both Spain and Croatia scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 37% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Spain vs Croatia right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Spain to win 79%, it finished Spain won (79% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 37%, it finished Yes.