FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Sparta Rotterdam 0–4 HeerenveenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Sparta Rotterdam or draw at 64%. Bawler had Sparta Rotterdam at 39%, the draw at 25% and Heerenveen at 36%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sparta Rotterdam win
39%
Draw
25%
Heerenveen win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 82%, grounded in both sides generating near-identical xG around 1.56–1.58 and a balanced win probability that keeps attacking intent alive."