FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Sporting CP 2–2 AroucaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP to win at 75%. Bawler had Sporting CP at 75%, the draw at 16% and Arouca at 8%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting CP win
75%
Draw
16%
Result
Arouca win
8%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 0.7
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sporting CP to win
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sporting CP's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.72 expected-goals advantage, with striker Viktor Gyökeres accounting for nearly a third of their attacking threat against Arouca's depleted output of 0.75 xG."