How it finished
Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Sporting CP at 75% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 16%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Sporting CP had 10 shots (3 on target) to Arouca's 15 (5), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 2.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Sporting CP vs Arouca?
Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Sporting CP at 75% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 16%. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Sporting CP had 10 shots (3 on target) to Arouca's 15 (5), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 2.1.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Arouca?
Sporting CP 2–2 Arouca, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sporting CP 75%, the draw 16% and Arouca 8%.
What were the stats in Sporting CP vs Arouca?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–2.1, Shots 10–15, Shots on target 3–5, Shots inside box 8–8, Big chances 5–4, Corners 4–2, Saves 4–1, Fouls 9–17, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 3–5, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Sporting CP vs Arouca?
Yes — both Sporting CP and Arouca scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 47% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Sporting CP vs Arouca right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Sporting CP to win 75%, it finished Draw (16% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 47%, it finished Yes.