FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Sporting CP 2–0 C.D. NacionalMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP to win at 75%. Bawler had Sporting CP at 75%, the draw at 17% and C.D. Nacional at 9%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting CP win
75%
Result
Draw
17%
C.D. Nacional win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 0.7
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sporting CP to win
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sporting CP's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 75%, built on a dominant 1.73 xG advantage and Viktor Gyökeres accounting for nearly a third of their attacking threat."