FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Friday, 14 August 2026
Sporting CP 3–2 Vitória de GuimaraesMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 14 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP to win at 61%. Bawler had Sporting CP at 61%, the draw at 25% and Vitória de Guimaraes at 14%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting CP win
61%
Result
Draw
25%
Vitória de Guimaraes win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.