USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vMinnesota United FC

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.98 goals expected
Sporting Kansas City 28%Draw 30%Minnesota United FC 43%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
80%

Over 1.5 Goals at 80% confidence is the play—Minnesota's expected-goal edge of 0.34 combined with a combined xG total of 2.98 signals a high-volume attacking setup that favors goals.

How we get there
Sporting Kansas CitystepMinnesota United FC
1.17Base xG · rolling 26-match1.77
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.66
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
80%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Sporting Kansas City average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Minnesota United average 4.4 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
7
4
2
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
2
4
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sporting Kansas City and Minnesota United — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sporting Kansas City 28% · draw 30% · Minnesota United 43%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Sporting Kansas City 21 Minnesota United FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.