FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union to win at 61%. Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 18%, the draw at 20% and Philadelphia Union at 61%. The match finished 3–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting Kansas City win
18%
Draw
20%
Philadelphia Union win
61%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 2.3
Total 3.5
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+3.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Philadelphia Union to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, driven by Philadelphia Union's 0.96 xG advantage and Tai Baribo's striker role accounting for 26% of team creation in a fixture forecast to produce 3.32 total expected goals."