How it finished
Philadelphia Union beat Sporting Kansas City 4–3. Bawler's model had Philadelphia Union in front at 61% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.5 goals; the match produced 7. Sporting Kansas City had 10 shots (6 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 11 (8), with 45% of the ball against 55%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 0.7, so Sporting Kansas City created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union beat Sporting Kansas City 4–3. Bawler's model had Philadelphia Union in front at 61% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.5 goals; the match produced 7. Sporting Kansas City had 10 shots (6 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 11 (8), with 45% of the ball against 55%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 0.7, so Sporting Kansas City created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Philadelphia Union, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sporting Kansas City 18%, the draw 20% and Philadelphia Union 61%.
What were the stats in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–0.7, Shots 10–11, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 7–4, Big chances 1–1, Corners 3–4, Saves 5–3, Fouls 11–14, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 3–3.
Did both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?
Yes — both Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union scored, finishing 3–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Philadelphia Union to win 61%, it finished Philadelphia Union won (61% called); Total goals — we said 3.5, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes.