FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St. Louis CITY SC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 23%, the draw at 24% and St. Louis CITY SC at 53%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting Kansas City win
23%
Draw
24%
Result
St. Louis CITY SC win
53%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
St. Louis CITY SC to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.