USA: MLSThursday 20 Aug, 00:00 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vSt. Louis CITY SC

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.76 goals expected
Sporting Kansas City 28%Draw 26%St. Louis CITY SC 46%
How we get there
Sporting Kansas CitystepSt. Louis CITY SC
1.17Base xG · rolling 26-match1.59
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.17Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.59

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Sporting Kansas City average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). St. Louis City average 3.6 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
8
4
2
1
1
7
12
9
5
2
1
2
4
7
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Sporting Kansas City fixtures & form →St. Louis CITY SC fixtures & form →

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis CITY — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 17 July 2026, Sporting Kansas City have won 0, St. Louis CITY have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
17 July 2026St. Louis CITY 3–2 Sporting Kansas CityUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sporting Kansas City 28% · draw 26% · St. Louis CITY 46%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Sporting Kansas City predictions & form →St. Louis CITY predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.