FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 72%. Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 11%, the draw at 17% and Vancouver Whitecaps at 72%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting Kansas City win
11%
Draw
17%
Vancouver Whitecaps win
72%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 2.6
Total 3.5
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Vancouver Whitecaps to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Vancouver Whitecaps' away win is the model's 72% call, backed by a dominant 1.63 xG advantage and striker Brian White's focal role in a team generating 2.55 expected goals against Kansas City's 0.92."